Economic Modeling, Simulation, and Impact Evaluation Course

Introduction
Economic modeling, simulation, and impact evaluation are essential tools for understanding how policies, programs, and economic shocks affect outcomes across sectors and populations. This course provides participants with a strong applied foundation in economic modeling techniques used to analyze policy effectiveness, forecast impacts, and inform evidence-based decision-making.
The programme bridges economic theory with practical modeling and simulation approaches commonly applied in public policy, development economics, and institutional planning. Participants will learn how economic models translate assumptions, data, and behavioral relationships into quantitative insights that support policy formulation and evaluation.
A core focus of the course is simulation analysis, where participants explore how counterfactual scenarios are constructed to assess “what-if” policy options. These simulations enable policymakers and analysts to anticipate the economic, fiscal, and social impacts of interventions before implementation.
Participants will gain practical exposure to impact evaluation methodologies, including experimental and quasi-experimental designs, integrated with economic models. The course demonstrates how rigorous evaluation strengthens accountability, improves program design, and enhances resource allocation decisions.
The programme also addresses emerging analytical approaches, including computational modeling, machine learning–supported simulations, and the integration of big data into impact evaluation frameworks. These innovations are increasingly shaping how economic evidence is generated and used in complex policy environments.
By the end of the course, participants will possess applied skills to design economic models, run policy simulations, and conduct credible impact evaluations. They will be equipped to support strategic planning, policy reform, and development effectiveness using robust analytical tools.

Duration

10 days

Who Should Attend

• Government economists and policy analysts
• Monitoring, evaluation, and learning (MEL) professionals
• Central bank and ministry of finance staff
• Development practitioners and donor agency staff
• Research economists and academic faculty
• Think-tank analysts and consultants
• Programme managers involved in policy design
• Postgraduate students in economics and public policy

Course Objectives

• To equip participants with practical skills in designing and applying economic models for policy analysis, forecasting, and decision support across public and development sectors.
• To strengthen understanding of simulation techniques used to assess alternative policy scenarios and quantify potential economic and social impacts.
• To enhance participants’ ability to link economic theory with real-world data when constructing applied models for policy and program evaluation.
• To develop competence in experimental and quasi-experimental impact evaluation methods integrated with economic modeling frameworks.
• To build analytical capacity for estimating causal impacts of policies and programs using rigorous quantitative techniques.
• To strengthen skills in interpreting and validating model results, assumptions, and limitations for credible policy advice.
• To improve participants’ ability to assess distributional and equity impacts of economic interventions through simulation and evaluation tools.
• To introduce computational and data-driven approaches, including machine learning, in economic modeling and impact analysis.
• To enhance participants’ capacity to evaluate cost-effectiveness and value for money using model-based evaluation approaches.
• To improve communication of modeling and evaluation results to policymakers, donors, and non-technical stakeholders.
• To strengthen understanding of ethical, transparency, and accountability issues in economic modeling and impact evaluation.
• To enable participants to apply international best practices and standards in economic modeling and evaluation for evidence-based policymaking.

Comprehensive Course Outline

Module 1: Foundations of Economic Modeling

• Purpose and role of economic models
• Types of economic models and applications
• Model assumptions and limitations
• Linking theory to empirical analysis

Module 2: Data for Economic Modeling and Evaluation

• Data requirements and sources
• Data quality and validation
• Handling missing and inconsistent data
• Integrating multiple datasets

Module 3: Static Economic Models

• Partial equilibrium models
• Comparative statics analysis
• Welfare analysis techniques
• Policy application examples

Module 4: Dynamic Economic Models

• Intertemporal decision-making
• Dynamic optimization concepts
• Growth and macro-dynamic models
• Policy implications over time

Module 5: Simulation Techniques in Economics

• Counterfactual analysis principles
• Baseline and scenario construction
• Sensitivity and stress testing
• Interpreting simulation results

Module 6: Micro-Simulation Models

• Household and firm-level simulations
• Tax-benefit and social protection models
• Distributional impact analysis
• Poverty and inequality simulations

Module 7: Macro and Computable General Equilibrium Models

• CGE model structure and assumptions
• Calibration and validation techniques
• Economy-wide policy simulations
• Interpreting CGE outputs

Module 8: Cost-Benefit and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

• Economic appraisal frameworks
• Valuation of costs and benefits
• Discounting and risk analysis
• Policy investment decisions

Module 9: Introduction to Impact Evaluation

• Theory of change and causal inference
• Evaluation questions and indicators
• Attribution versus contribution
• Linking evaluation to policy design

Module 10: Experimental Impact Evaluation Methods

• Randomized controlled trials
• Design and implementation issues
• Ethical considerations
• Interpreting experimental results

Module 11: Quasi-Experimental Evaluation Techniques

• Difference-in-differences methods
• Regression discontinuity designs
• Matching and instrumental variables
• Strengths and limitations

Module 12: Integrating Models with Impact Evaluation

• Combining simulations and evaluation results
• Ex ante and ex post evaluation approaches
• Scaling-up and policy learning
• Managing uncertainty

Module 13: Emerging Tools and Technologies

• Machine learning in economic modeling
• Big data and real-time analytics
• Computational simulation platforms
• Automation of evaluation workflows

Module 14: Distributional and Equity Impact Analysis

• Measuring winners and losers
• Gender and vulnerability analysis
• Inclusive growth considerations
• Policy trade-offs

Module 15: Communicating Modeling and Evaluation Results

• Writing analytical and policy reports
• Visualization of complex results
• Presenting uncertainty and assumptions
• Supporting evidence-based decisions

Module 16: Case Studies and Applications

• Applied policy modeling cases
• Simulation and evaluation exercises
• Group presentations and peer review
• Translating analysis into policy action

Training Approach

This course will be delivered by our skilled trainers who have vast knowledge and experience as expert professionals in the fields. The course is taught in English and through a mix of theory, practical activities, group discussion and case studies. Course manuals and additional training materials will be provided to the participants upon completion of the training.

Tailor-Made Course

This course can also be tailor-made to meet organization requirement. For further inquiries, please contact us on: Email: training@upskilldevelopment.com Tel: +254 721 331 808

Training Venue

The training will be held at our Upskill Training Centre. We also offer training for a group at requested location all over the world. The course fee covers the course tuition, training materials, two break refreshments, airport transfers, Upskill gift package, guided tour and buffet lunch.

Visa application, travel expenses, dinners, accommodation, insurance, and other personal expenses are catered by the participant

Certification

Participants will be issued with Upskill certificate upon completion of this course.

Airport Pickup and Accommodation

Accommodation is arranged upon request. For booking contact our Training Coordinator through Email: training@upskilldevelopment.com, +254 721 331 808

Terms of Payment

Unless otherwise agreed between the two parties payment of the course fee should be done 3 working days before commencement of the training so as to enable us to prepare better